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Prediction for CME (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-11T21:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10195/-1
CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T01:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Feb 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2016

            Feb 13     Feb 14     Feb 15
00-03UT        2          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          2          4     
09-12UT        2          2          4     
12-15UT        3          2          4     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected late on 14 Feb and
early on 15 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME.
Lead Time: 59.93 hour(s)
Difference: 4.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-02-12T17:19Z
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